2024 Presidential Election Forecast

Who Is Favored To Win?

538 uses polling economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.

The 2024 presidential election is just around the corner, and the race is already heating up. With so many candidates vying for the nomination, it can be difficult to keep track of who is leading in the polls. To help you make sense of the race, we've compiled a list of the latest polling data from 538, Cook Political Report, and other reputable sources.

According to 538's polling data, Joe Biden is currently the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, with a 32% chance of winning the nomination. He is followed by Bernie Sanders (26%), Elizabeth Warren (15%), and Kamala Harris (12%).

In the Republican primary, Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner, with a 52% chance of winning the nomination. He is followed by Mike Pence (15%), Ted Cruz (10%), and Marco Rubio (9%).

The general election is still a long way off, but the polling data suggests that the race will be close. Biden currently has a 51% chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 49% chance of winning.

Of course, the polls can be wrong, and there are still many factors that could affect the outcome of the election. But the polling data provides us with a snapshot of where the race stands today.